Canada: Barley production is forecast by AAFC to decrease by 10% in 2006-07

Canada’s barley production is forecast by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) to decrease by 10% in 2006-2007 due to lower area and yields. Supply is expected to be further reduced by low carry-in stocks. Exports are forecast to decrease by 15% to a normal level as the decrease in feed barley exports is only partially offset by higher exports of malting barley.

Despite lower exports and domestic feed use, carry-out stocks are expected to fall significantly as a result of lower supply. The average off-Board feed barley price is forecast to increase by C$20/t from 2005-06 to C$130/t, for No.1 CW I/S Lethbridge. The CWB PRO for feed barley Pool A is C$113/t vs. C$117/t for Pool B in 2005-06. The CWB PRO for SS2R malting barley decreased to C$161/t, pressured mainly by strong export competition from Australia.

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